How much extra food do we need to produce?

By Jason Major

TechNyou

A quick note re: references that give figures for the amount food production will need to increase in coming years to ensure food security

Following our GM food: a dinner discussion held last night in Melbourne, a question was asked on Twitter wondering where the figure of 50% increase in food production needed came from? From memory it was mentioned in the video at the start. Anyone wanting to check the Twitter conversation from the event can search the event’s hashtag #GTmenu

So where did the figure of 50% come from? I actually don’t know. I have seen figures of between 50 to 100% given, depending on the report you read. So I can’t give a specific response to the 50% figure at the moment, but a quick dig in my files reveals some other figures quoted in other reports and articles – see below. There are loads of reports of this nature out there that talk about this. This is just what is at my fingertips.

 PMSEIC (2010). Australia and Food Security in a Changing World. The Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra, Australia.

With the predicted growth in the world population to around 9 billion, the World Food Summit on Food Security in 2009 set a target of 70 per cent increased food production by 2050 which would require an annual rate of increase of 44 million tonnes.

From Hajkowicz, S & Moody, J 2010, Our future world. An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios, CSIRO, Canberra

Food security threats for poorer countries. Whilst some of the world’s population is dealing with too much food others are dealing with too little. The number of undernourished people in the world increased from 848 million to 963 million between 2003–05 and 2008 (IFPRI, 2008, FAO 2008). World food demand will be 75% greater by 2050.

Comment in Nature, 21 July, p287 Freeze the footprint of food

By Jason Clay, Senior Vice President, market transformation, World Wide Fund for nature (WWF)

Progress on some food wedges will occur faster than others. But every current system of food production needs to double produc­tivity per hectare. If we cannot double the genetic potential of the 10–15 main calo­rie crops, on the same amount of land, we will fail to meet rising demand. NGOs and academics do not control the global food system, so instead they must try to change how governments and the private sector think about food production.

Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D

Initiative to Avoid a Deep and Complex Crisis

Joachim von Braun, Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute

Charles Valentine Riley* Memorial Lecture Capitol Hill Forum, Washington D.C., February 28, 2008

(they don’t actually give a figure, just suggest there is a need to increase production) An urgent global R&D initiative for accelerated agricultural productivity Central to the sustainability of world agriculture is a global R&D initiative for accelerated agriculture productivity; such an initiative makes economic sense, is pro-poor and sustainable, and serves security. The R&D initiative needs political leadership and coordination. Industrialized economies, including the United States, should substantially accelerate their investment in international agricultural research and development.

It is my understanding, and I could be wrong here, that the figures given for the required food production increase are based on the assuming that trends such as diminishing water, further land degradation, peak oil/phosphates, continuing poverty and food wastage issues…and the countless other constraints continue. That is, we need to sort all these issues, but if we don’t then this is the amount of extra food we need to produce.